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Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore populations on which they depend. We recently noted that the densities of true apex carnivores like the lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitively subordinate carnivores like the African wild dog benefit from competitive release when density of apex carnivores is low, so the expected effect of a simultaneous decrease in resources and dominant competitors is not obvious. We found that when prey density drops below a tipping point, the relationship of wild dog density to prey density changes sign, and wild dog density declines. We also noted that ‘prey depletion provides a mechanistically direct explanation of patterns in wild dog dynamics that have been attributed to climate change’ (Creel et al., 2023). Woodroffe et al. concur that prey depletion is an important threat, but suggest that we fail to understand the logic of their assertion that “climate change is likely to cause population collapse” (Rabaiotti et al., 2022), because the “identification of climate change as a threat is not based upon observed temporal trends in wild dog demography”. This statement misses our fundamental point. The data that Woodroffe et al. analyzed were collected over a period with rising temperatures and declining prey populations, so whether or not one tests for a time trend in demography, the data themselves are affected by two patterns: 

Lions and other African large carnivores are in decline, due in part to effects of illegal hunting with snares, which can reduce prey availability and directly kill or injure carnivores. It is difficult to effectively remove snares from large ecosystems by patrolling, but an additional approach to reduce effects on large carnivores is to monitor the population closely and de-snare individuals who are found in a snare or have broken free but still carry the wire (often with serious injury). The effectiveness of de-snaring programs to reduce impacts on large carnivores has not been directly tested. Here, we used long-term demographic data from 386 individually identified lions in the Luangwa Valley Ecosystem to test the effects on population growth (λ) and population size (N) of a program to remove snares from injured lions and treat their wounds. Stochastic Leslie matrix projections for a period of five years showed that the population grew with the benefits of de-snaring, but was expected to decline without desnaring. Mean annual growth (λ) with de-snaring was 1.037 (with growth in 70% of years), closely matching observed changes in population size. Mean annual growth was 0.99 (with growth in 47% of years) for a model that assumed snared animals would have died if not treated, and 0.95 (with growth in 37% of years) for models that also accounted for super-additive effects via the death of dependent cubs and increased infanticide with increased male mortality. De-snaring requires intensive effort, but it can appreciably reduce the effect of snaring on lion population dynamics. 

Introduction: Predators can affect prey not only by killing them, but also by causing them to alter their behavior, including patterns of habitat selection. Prey can reduce the risk of predation by moving to habitats where predators are less likely to detect them, less likely to attack, or less likely to succeed. The interaction of such responses to risk with other ecological processes remains relatively unstudied, but in some cases, changes in habitat use to avoid predation may be constrained by competition: larger, dominant competitors should respond freely to predation risk, but the responses of smaller, subordinate competitors may be constrained by the responses of dominant competitors. For large grazing herbivores, an alternative hypothesis proposes that smaller prey species are vulnerable to more predators, and thus should respond more strongly to predation risk. Methods: Here, we tested these two hypotheses with 775 observations of habitat selection by four species of obligate grazers (zebra, wildebeest, puku and oribi) in the immediate presence or absence of four large carnivores (lion, spotted hyena, African wild dog and cheetah) in three ecosystems (Greater Liuwa, Greater Kafue and Luangwa Valley). Patterns of predation within this set were described by observation of 1,105 kills. Results:Our results support the hypothesis that responses to predation risk are strongest for larger, dominant competitors. Even though zebras were killed least often, they showed the strongest shift into cover when carnivores were present. Wildebeest, puku and oribi showed weaker habitat shifts, even though they were more frequently killed. These patterns remained consistent in models that controlled for differences in the hunting mode of the predator (stalking, coursing, or intermediate) and for differences among ecosystems. There was no evidence that smaller species were subject to predation by a broader set of predators. Instead, smaller prey were killed often by smaller predators, and larger prey were killed often by larger predators. Discussion: Broadly, our results show that responses to predation risk interact with interspecific competition. Accounting for such interactions should help to explain the considerable variation in the strength of responses to predation risk that has been observed.